
I came across an article my Mr. Moisi the other day. Since then I have understood that his theory has been around for some time and that many scholars have already lined up to support him. But somehow, I have not come across it before.
Nevertheless, the point is that he looks at geopolitics from an emotional perspective - that of fear and hope. He suggests (among others) the the US culture is dominated by individual fear and collective hope. Whereas the Western European one is guided by collective fear.
Mr. Moisi has 2 scenarios for 2025, depending on humanity being guided by fear or hope.
If guided by fear: after the 2018 4th Intifadah, the Middle East is in complete chaos. Terrorist groups are gaining power, they have already employed biological weapons that killed some 30.000 people. Nation states´ borders are closed down, everyone bacame suspicious and fearful of "the other".
If guided by hope: the USA is the greenest economy of the world, the EU has become united, Turkey joined the EU as a whole and business practices have become much more sustainable. Oh, and the Middle-East problem has been solved.
OK, these brief scenarios do not mention other major powers (Russia, China, India, SAR, Brazil Mexico, rest of Asia, Africa), but it gives you the idea of the severity of the state.
Now, the choice is ours. Fear or hope? apparently, we are too comfortable in our mental models to invest into looking at the world with hope.